Strategic Foresight | Futures Alchemist

Definition

Strategic foresight is a disciplined and systematic approach to exploring and anticipating potential futures to inform decision-making and strategic planning. It involves identifying emerging trends, uncertainties, and possible scenarios to help organisations or individuals prepare for and shape the future. Unlike traditional forecasting, which relies on predicting a single outcome, strategic foresight considers multiple possible futures and the implications of each.

Example

Shell Oil in 1970s:

A well-known example of strategic foresight is Shell Oil’s use of scenario planning in the 1970s. Shell developed multiple scenarios to explore how the global oil market might evolve, allowing the company to prepare for the 1973 oil crisis. As a result, Shell was better positioned than its competitors to navigate the crisis, leading to significant competitive advantages.

Ask yourself

What are the key drivers of change in my industry or field?
What are the possible future scenarios that could emerge, and how would they impact my organisation?
How can I create flexible strategies that are robust across multiple future scenarios?
How do I identify early indicators of change to adjust my strategies in real time?

Tools

All the tools! 😉

Comparisons

Futures Thinking vs. Strategic Foresight

Futures Thinking is a broader term that encompasses various methods and approaches to exploring and understanding potential futures. It involves a mindset shift from focusing on the present or the past to considering long-term possibilities and the implications of current actions.

Strategic Foresight is a more focused application of futures thinking, specifically aimed at informing strategic decisions. While futures thinking can be exploratory and speculative, strategic foresight is action-oriented, providing insights that directly inform planning and decision-making.

In essence, futures thinking is the conceptual framework, while strategic foresight is the practical application of that framework in strategic contexts.