Definition
VUCA is an acronym that stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity. It describes the characteristics of a situation or environment that make it difficult to understand and predict. VUCA highlights the need for agility, adaptability and resilience in the face of rapid change and uncertainty. It was coined 1987 by the USA Army College and became more common in the early 2000s.
Change the focus of vUCA
- Volatility – refers to the speed, magnitude and dynamics of change in a situation. The larger the magnitude of the volatility and change, the bigger the impact on decision making.
- Uncertainty – the higher the uncertainty of upcoming events, the more difficult it is to anticipate and prepare
- Complexity – interconnected systems can be challenging to understand and anticipate if the level of complexity is high
- Ambiguity – refers to a lack of clarity and understanding of the situation
Robert Johansen of the Institute of the Future, designed an update to the VUCA acronym with VUCA Prime.
- Vision – By keeping a focus on the desired and compelling vision for the future, an organisation can rise above Volatility.
- Understanding – If we can explore the factors in a situation using a model perhaps like PESTLE, then we can start to build Understanding to reduce our Uncertainty.
- Clarity – Without oversimplifying, getting Clarity on issues counters Complexity.
- Agility – There are many ways the future could unfold which leads to its Ambiguous nature. By being prepared to respond to different flags or indicators, Agility can overcome Ambiguity.
Ask yourself
- How quickly are things changing in my environment?
- What are the potential triggers for change?
- How well do I understand the interconnected factors at play?
- What information is unclear or missing?
- Am I really agile in changing circumstances or do I only assume that I am?
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