Definition Complexity refers to the state of being intricate, interconnected, or multifaceted. There are non-linear interactions and dynamic feedback loops. Complex systems cannot be easily simplified. It requires a systems thinking approach to understand and navigate. A complicated system however, is easier to reduce to a model or diagram. Example Poly Crisis Adam Tooze’s Poly … Read more
Definition Trends are patterns of change or development in a particular direction over time. Trend analysis is the practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern, or trend, in the information. Example The rise of remote work is a significant trend that has been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Companies like Gallup have … Read more
Definition Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularised the term ‘Black Swan Event’ when referring to an unexpected, unforeseen event that has a huge impact. The metaphor of a black swan originated from the presumption that all swans were white, based on centuries of observation, until black swans were discovered in Australia, challenging the previously held assumption. Similarly, … Read more
Definition The Anthropocene is a (contested) term used to describe a new era in Earth’s history that started when humans began having a major impact on the planet. This includes things like climate change caused by human activity, the extinction of many plants and animals, and big changes to the land, oceans, and atmosphere. Example … Read more
Definition The field of robotics and automation involves the design, development, and use of machines (robots) and computer systems to perform tasks traditionally done by humans, often with increased efficiency, precision, and speed. Example The automotive industry has widely adopted robotics and automation, particularly in assembly lines. For instance, Tesla’s Fremont factory uses hundreds of … Read more
Definition Anticipation in the context of futures thinking or strategic foresight refers to the ability to foresee and prepare for future developments, challenges, or opportunities. It involves analysing trends, identifying potential scenarios, and taking proactive steps to adapt or capitalise on them. Example Disney’s Theme Park Expansion: Disney strategically anticipates future trends in entertainment and … Read more
Definition The Delphi Method is a structured communication technique used to gather expert opinions through a series of questionnaires and controlled feedback rounds. It aims to achieve a convergence of opinion on a specific real-world issue or forecast. Example The RAND Corporation used the Delphi Method in the 1950s and 1960s to forecast the impact … Read more
Definition The branch of applied ethics that deals with moral principles and values related to long-term planning, decision-making, and the potential consequences of current actions on future generations and scenarios. Example Long Now The development of the Long Now Foundation’s 10,000 Year Clock project, initiated by Danny Hillis in 1986, embodies futures ethics. This massive … Read more
Definition Innovation refers to the process of creating new ideas, products, services, or methods that bring about significant change or improvement. It involves introducing novel solutions to existing problems or enhancing current practices in meaningful ways. Tools Design Thinking: A problem-solving approach that encourages user-centred innovation by understanding customer needs, brainstorming solutions, and prototyping. Blue … Read more
Definition Creativity is the ability to generate novel and valuable ideas, solutions, or products. In the context of foresight and futures thinking, creativity involves imagining and conceptualising possible future scenarios, innovative solutions to anticipated challenges, and new opportunities that may arise from emerging trends. Example World Wide Web A real-world example of creativity in futures … Read more