Definition
Blind spot analysis is a strategic foresight technique used to identify and examine areas of ignorance, misconceptions, or overlooked factors in an organisation’s or individual’s understanding of a situation, market, or future scenario. It aims to uncover hidden risks, opportunities, and biases that might otherwise go unnoticed in decision-making processes.
Example
Business school staples:
Kodak, while they had the technology for digital photography could not imagine it would replace film cameras, in part because their business model relied on the sale of photography film.
BlockBusters, while they had a small division looking at streaming video services, could not fathom how the online service could replace their brick-and-mortar empire.
They are now the go-to examples for failing to act on the foresight that was actually available to them.
Ask yourself
- What assumptions am I making about the future that might not be true?
- How can I be challenged to seek perspectives I might be overlooking?
- Are there emerging trends or technologies that I’m dismissing or underestimating?
- What perspectives or stakeholders am I not considering in my analysis?
- How might my personal or organisational biases be influencing my view of the future?
Comparing:
- Blind spots are ongoing areas of ignorance, while black swans and wild cards are specific events.
- Blind spots can be systematically addressed, whereas black swans are inherently unpredictable.
- Wild cards are similar to black swans but are more speculative and can be incorporated into strategic planning.
The Big Short
In the movie “The Big Short” (2015), a group of investors identify a massive blind spot in the U.S. housing market that most banks and rating agencies overlooked, leading to the 2008 financial crisis. The film humorously depicts how groupthink and willful ignorance can create enormous blind spots even in sophisticated financial systems.
Tools
- Scenario Planning: Developing multiple future scenarios can help identify blind spots by forcing consideration of various possibilities.
- Red Team Analysis: Using a group to challenge assumptions and plans can reveal overlooked factors.
- Delphi Method: Consulting a diverse group of experts can bring multiple perspectives and highlight potential blind spots.
- STEEP Analysis: Examining Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political factors can uncover overlooked areas.
- Axes of Uncertainty: Exploring how different trends and events might interact can reveal unexpected outcomes.
Blind Spot Test
- Draw a small dot and a small cross on a piece of paper, about 5-6 inches apart.
- Close your right eye and focus on the cross with your left eye.
- Hold the paper at arm’s length and slowly bring it closer while keeping your gaze fixed on the cross.
- At a certain distance, the dot will disappear from your peripheral vision. This is your blind spot!
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