Definition
The Delphi Method is a structured communication technique used to gather expert opinions through a series of questionnaires and controlled feedback rounds. It aims to achieve a convergence of opinion on a specific real-world issue or forecast.
Example
The RAND Corporation used the Delphi Method in the 1950s and 1960s to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. This project, sponsored by the U.S. Air Force, aimed to gather expert opinions on future technological capabilities and their potential military applications.
Ask yourself
- Who are the most suitable experts for this particular topic?
- How many rounds of questionnaires are necessary to reach a consensus?
- What measures can be taken to ensure anonymity and prevent groupthink?
- How will the feedback be synthesised and presented between rounds?
- What criteria will be used to determine when consensus has been reached?
Tools
- Scenario Planning: Often used in conjunction with the Delphi Method to explore multiple future scenarios.
- Cross-Impact Analysis: Can be integrated with Delphi to examine interdependencies between forecasted events.
- Trend Analysis: Helps in identifying and evaluating trends that may influence expert opinions.
- Survey design tools: Such as SurveyMonkey or Qualtrics for creating and distributing questionnaires.
Origin
The method is named after the ancient Greek city of Delphi, which was home to the famous Oracle of Delphi. In Greek mythology, Delphi was considered the centre of the world, and the Oracle was a priestess known as the Pythia who resided at the Temple of Apollo.
People from all over the ancient world would travel to Delphi to consult the Oracle on important decisions and to seek predictions about the future. The Oracle would enter a trance-like state and deliver prophesies, which were often cryptic and open to interpretation.
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